Your next trip could be riskier than you think -- here's why (and how to adapt)

Illustration by Dustin Elliott

Colombia has been at the top of Seann Malloy's bucket list for years, so he recently started planning a solo trip to Cartagena and Medellín. He looked forward to sipping tinto coffee at a cafe and strolling the beach at Playa Blanca. 

The destination seemed safe at first, but then came a U.S. State Department travel advisory warning of an increase in crime. And then he started to do more research, reading local crime reports and talking to Colombian expats on Reddit and Facebook.

That's when he started to have second thoughts. 

"The tipping point was a pronounced surge in robbery and kidnapping of tourists in cities, much of which went unreported in the mainstream travel press," says Malloy, an attorney from Bethesda, Md. "I wondered: Would I feel safe walking alone at night, or taking a rideshare to a more casual location? The honest answer was no."

He canceled his trip.

Malloy isn't alone. It's been a busy year for government travel warnings, but those notices don't address the personal risk factors to an individual traveler. And as a result, many travelers are wondering how to answer the question: Is the place I'm planning to visit safe? 

How do you determine if a destination is safe?

As travelers start thinking about their 2026 trips, personal safety is coming into focus.

Andrew Coggins, a management and international business professor at Pace University, says determining how dangerous a place is can be tricky. It's a balance between your own risk tolerance and the conditions on the ground. But he says Malloy followed the right steps. 

"Some key indicators of dangerous destinations are unstable governments, civil unrest, and high crime," he explains. "These don't always get above the news radar, but watching and listening to vetted news sources with a global outlook can keep you abreast of what's going on around the world."

Pro strategies for figuring out travel risk in 2026

Experts say travel next year will be fraught with risks, including crime to geopolitical turmoil. But there are ways to ensure you know the dangers before you commit to a trip. 

Cast a wide net. No single source is completely reliable, according to John Rose, chief risk advisor for ALTOUR, a global corporate travel management company. "Safety is dynamic, so it’s essential to cross-reference data points, from crime trends to health infrastructure to geopolitical stability, rather than rely on a single source," he says. 

Check official and unofficial sources. Sure, the State Department is an official source, but don't stop there when looking for safety advice, says Harding Bush, associate director of security operations at Global Rescue. "To assess the safety of an international destination, start by examining the U.S. Department of State travel warnings and other countries’ travel ratings like the U.K. Foreign Commonwealth Office and Canadian travel advice and advisories," he says. Unofficial sources can be important as well, he notes. "Ask friends or colleagues who have recently visited the area whether it is considered stable, or if it is a conflict zone or near one, while also identifying any violent factions present.” 

Go social. "We always suggest monitoring the local consulates at your destination on social media, and do that prior to deciding on your trip," says John Gobbels, chief operating officer of Medjet, a medical transport and security response membership program. "Most are very good about tweeting updates on everything from where protests might be happening, to upcoming strikes, areas to avoid and a lot of other general safety information." Gobbels says in an emergency, it’s often a source of real-time updates customized toward U.S. citizens.

Be skeptical. "Crime statistics do not tell an accurate story as to safety in other countries," says Leonard Sipes, a former senior specialist for crime prevention for the Department of Justice who now runs a site called Crime in America. His go-to resource for safety information abroad is the State Department Travel Advisories page. But again, don't rely on just one source.

Watch for these red flags. Some signs should trigger an immediate cancellation, says Muhammed Fawas, a tour guide from Kerala, India, who regularly advises his clients on travel safety. "They include sudden government advisories or embassy evacuations, social media reports of unrest or large-scale protests, or insurance providers pulling coverage for a destination," he says. If you see those, it's time to rethink your travel plans.

Beware of overly general advice. For example, last year, right at the start of Nepal’s peak travel season in late September, the southern part of the Kathmandu Valley experienced serious flooding. But it was in an area that tourists rarely visit, notes Naresh Dahal, operations manager at Everest Luxury Holidays, a tour operator. "Many travelers saw those news clips and assumed the entire country was unsafe," he says. "In reality, the actual trekking and cultural destinations remained completely unaffected."

Look before you leap. Global volatility means more destinations can quickly shift in their risk profile. "We're seeing increased caution advised for areas impacted by geopolitical instability, rising crime rates, or active conflicts," notes Luis Ortega, vice president of risk assessment for Allied Universal, a provider of private security services. For example, parts of the Caribbean, like Trinidad and Tobago and Mexico, can change at a moment's notice. Ortega says it's best to check before you travel, even if you did your research during the planning phase.

One more thing: When you go abroad, consider registering for the State Department's STEP program, which will keep you informed if the security situation deteriorates. 

Risk is a personal decision

As you look to your 2026 trips, beware of one-size-fits-all advice. For example, I interviewed travelers for this story who said they would never visit a communist country because they feel it's too dangerous. But I just visited Laos and China, and it was perfectly safe -- for me. The point is, risk is a personal decision, and the general advice experts will give you only provides a framework for making your choice.

"Travelers can prioritize safety through thorough preparedness, taking proactive measures, and leveraging support where available," says Frank Harrison, regional security director for the Americas at World Travel Protection.

But the rest -- which includes some heavy lifting on research, contemplation and consulting with trusted sources -- is up to you.

Determining the danger of a destination in 2026 hinges on more than government warnings or crime stats. It’s a mix of hyper-local insights, geopolitical awareness, and self-assessment. Experts stress that travelers must triangulate real-time social media updates, cross-border advisories, and on-the-ground expat accounts to navigate risks like sudden unrest or unreliable data. 

Even meticulous planning can’t guarantee your safety. Volatile regions demand last-minute reassessments, while personal comfort with uncertainty varies widely. The answer isn’t a list of “no-go” zones, but rather a framework for balancing curiosity with caution.